Dollars and Jens
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
I 06II 06III 06IV 06I 07II 07III 07IV 07I 08II 08III 08
Gross domestic product4.
Personal consumption expenditures2.861.881.522.552.711.421.
Change in private inventories-.24.38-.11-1.41-
Fixed investment1.39-.40-.81-1.27-.57.47-.15-.97-.86-.25-.82
Net exports of goods and services.09.59-.121.33-1.201.662.03.94.772.931.07
Government spending.


Friday, November 21, 2008
Treasury Secretary nominee Geithner
“The conventional risk-management framework today focuses too much on the threat to a firm from its own mistakes and too little on the potential for mistakes to be correlated across firms,” Mr. Geithner said. He called the existing regulatory structure “an enormously complex web of rules that create perverse incentives and leave huge opportunities for arbitrage and evasion, and creates the risk of large gaps in our knowledge and authority.”
Geithner as Treasury Secretary has my endorsement.

Goldman Sachs lowers GDP estimate
I believe that this would make the current quarter the worst since 1982Q1.

Thursday, November 20, 2008
stock market
The S&P 500 today closed at 752.44, its lowest level since April 16, 1997, and its lowest close since two days before that.

I believe the S&P 500 was in the high 740s when Greenspan suggested, in December 1996, that there might have been "irrational exuberance" in the stock market. There might have been. There probably isn't now.

Update: Reportedly, this also makes for the biggest peak-to-trough drop since 1929-1932. So far.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Energy prices dropped more than 8% in October, but consumer prices ex food and energy also dropped (slightly) in October, leading to an overall drop in consumer prices by 1.0%. (That's not annualized.)

Friday, November 07, 2008
TED Spread
TED is at 198bp, back below 200! For the first time in nearly two months, it's really bad, instead of unimaginably bad.


Monday, November 03, 2008
Dollar LIBOR dips below 300bp.

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