Dollars and Jens
Friday, March 25, 2011
Both "investment" categories were revised up. 2011Q1 is starting to look weaker than hoped; we'll get the first official estimate on that at the end of next month (I believe on the day of the royal wedding, for what that's worth).
IV 07I 08II 08III 08IV 08I 09II 09III 09IV 09I 10II 10III 10IV 10
Gross domestic product2.9-.7.6-4.0-6.8-4.9-.
Nondurable goods.07-.50.31-.91-.78.06-.
Durable goods.20-.92-.23-.95-1.79.35-.211.35-.
Change in private inventories-.77-.49-.48-.12-2.31-1.09-
Fixed investment-.76-.98-.69-1.83-4.01-5.71-1.26.12-.12.392.06.18.80
Net exports of goods and services3.21.841.04-.631.502.881.47-1.371.90-.31-3.50-1.703.27
Government spending.24.44.651.04.31-.611.24.33-.28-.32.80.79-.34


Tuesday, March 15, 2011
The FOMC statement, as revised:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December confirms January suggests that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in on a firmer footing, and overall conditions in the labor market conditions appear to be improving gradually. Growth in household spending picked up late last year, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on Household spending and business investment in equipment and software is rising, while continue to expand. However, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak . Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The , and the housing sector continues to be depressed. Although commodity Commodity prices have risen significantly since the summer, and concerns about global supplies of crude oil have contributed to a sharp run-up in oil prices in recent weeks. Nonetheless, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, and measures of underlying inflation have been trending downward subdued.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is remains elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are continue to be somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates The recent increases in the prices of energy and other commodities are currently putting upward pressure on inflation. The Committee expects these effects to be transitory, but it will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations. The Committee continues to anticipate a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow.

To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November. In particular, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings and intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.


Thursday, March 03, 2011
Markets are Efficient if and Only if P = NP
The paper by that title is here (you may need an SSRN account to download it - I'm not sure). I haven't read more than the abstract, but it looks fun.

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