Dollars and Jens
Monday, February 09, 2004
job survey divergence
I've read in some places that this typically happens at the beginning of a recovery; small companies hire before large ones, new companies start up at an accelerated rate, and people start setting off on their own. The rap against the household survey is a greater statistical uncertainty. So I mean to construct a model combining a precisely measurable indicator of a variable with an imprecise direct measurement, with the notion that this would imply a way of taking these two numbers to get us a better real-time view of the employment situation than either gives us by itself.

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