Dollars and Jens
Sunday, October 30, 2005
I have to admit I had forgotten the GDP number was to come out, so I was not only surprised by the contents of the release, but by the release itself. The headline number of 3.8% was a bit of a surprise, and even more so was that it includes another large inventory drawdown, which bodes quite well for the fourth quarter number — Goldman Sachs raised its 4Q estimate from 2.5% to 3.5% just because of this.
One of my favorite numbers comes out on Thursday. While everyone else looks to the next week for the Fed statement Tuesday afternoon and the payroll data Friday, I'm looking forward to the productivity report, which tends to be given little attention because so much of what it tells us comes out in that GDP report, and it tends to be volatile anyway. Still, I like to look at unit labor cost trends.