Dollars and Jens
Friday, January 06, 2006
It's a new year, and this is likely to last as long as a typical New Year's resolution, but let's start a Friday feature on a particularly bad example of financial reporting, probably from money.cnn.com. What we're looking for is the construction of explanations for market moves that are explicitly, and more directly, contradicted by other market moves. For example,
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Stocks climbed Friday morning as investors welcomed a weaker-than-expected December jobs report, betting that it means the Federal Reserve can stop its rate-hiking campaign in the near future.The most direct indicator of market expectation of Federal Reserve rate action comes from federal funds futures, which moved toward predictions of higher likelihood of rate hikes this morning on the jobs report.
Bonus points for a story containing such evidence of its own dubiousness, as in
That may have been what the Treasury market was reacting to. Prices inched lower, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 4.37 percent from around 4.35 percent late Thursday.Longer-term rates aren't directly related to fed action, as short-term rates pretty much are, but they track it more closely than the stock market does.
N.B.The excerpts included and market observations were made at a single moment in time; money.cnn updates stories over the course of the day, and the above quotes may no longer be in the article, though I find the most material assertion is still there, buried and phrased slightly differently.