Dollars and Jens
Thursday, August 28, 2008
GDP
The "preliminary" revision of Q2 GDP is out:
| Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | |
| 4.8% | -.2% | .9% | 3.3% | |
| Consumption | 1.44 | .67 | .61 | 1.24 |
| Inventories | .69 | -.96 | -.02 | -1.44 |
| Fixed investment | -.15 | -.97 | -.86 | -.38 | Net Exports | 2.03 | .94 | .77 | 3.10 |
| Government Spending | .75 | .16 | .38 | .67 |
The headline rate has been revised up 1.4 percentage points, to a rate that corresponds at least to the economy's full potential. Half a point comes from an inventory draw-down that is reckoned as not quite as dramatic as it previously was, but an even bigger chunk comes from an even-more-stunning-than-thought change in the balance of trade. (Cf. last month's report.)
Interestingly, the nominal trade deficit was still up very slightly, presumably because the prices of imports — in particular, one really big import — were significantly higher in the second quarter than the first, while any price change in exports was less dramatic.
Update: Gross Domestic Income, which in principle should be the same as GDP, has been weaker than GDP.
