Dollars and Jens
Friday, January 30, 2009
|III 06||IV 06||I 07||II 07||III 07||IV 07||I 08||II 08||III 08||IV 08|
|Gross domestic product||.8||1.5||.1||4.8||4.8||-.2||.9||2.8||-.5||-3.8|
|Change in private inventories||-.11||-1.41||-1.06||.47||.69||-.96||-.02||-1.50||.84||1.32|
|Net exports of goods and services||-.12||1.33||-1.20||1.66||2.03||.94||.77||2.93||1.05||.09|
This isn't as bad a headline number as was widely feared; note, though, the large positive contribution from inventory build-up. Imports and exports were both way down, but in a very nearly canceling fashion. Every single subcategory of fixed investment was negative. Food was substantially negative; this could mean that people are actually eating less, but it seems more likely to me that it reflects substitution into cheaper food. I wonder whether I can dig up more detail on that.