Dollars and Jens
Friday, February 27, 2009
|III 06||IV 06||I 07||II 07||III 07||IV 07||I 08||II 08||III 08||IV 08|
|Gross domestic product||.8||1.5||.1||4.8||4.8||-.2||.9||2.8||-.5||-6.2|
|Change in private inventories||-.11||-1.41||-1.06||.47||.69||-.96||-.02||-1.50||.84||.16|
|Net exports of goods and services||-.12||1.33||-1.20||1.66||2.03||.94||.77||2.93||1.05||-.46|
The increase in inventories accumulation that was holding up the first estimate of Q4 GDP was pretty much revised away, net exports were downgraded, and some shockingly weak goods consumption was revised to shockingly weaker. 1982Q1 saw growth at a -6.4% rate, which isn't remotely outside the realm of possibility when this is revised again next month.
(A note on the inventories number: keep in mind that inventory accumulation is counted as investment and therefore part of GDP, so that the contribution of inventories to GDP growth is the second time derivative of real inventory accumulation. The slightly positive contribution in Q4 represents a draw-down (or write-down?) of inventories, but at a slower rate than in Q3.)
Update: Casy Mulligan says that the price deflator for investment rose at a 3.6% annual rate, which I've not checked but agree seems a bit odd. If nominal investment were as reported and the deflator were less aggressive, of course, real investment would not be quite so bad, but it would be hard to make it actually look good, or even mediocre.