Dollars and Jens
Friday, March 27, 2009
income and spending
Of course if trimmed-mean PCE is out, that means NIPA is out, too. The numbers aren't what you'd call "good", but the positive surprise from the January report hasn't been fully negated, so it's worth noting that Q1 GDP is likely to look substantially better on PCE terms than Q4 did, though I presume the overall figure will still be negative. I haven't seen any forecasts lately, and anyone who takes my forecast seriously would deserve to be mocked without mercy, but I'm envisioning something like a -2% annual rate, which is higher than the last guesses I've heard (which were in February).

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