Dollars and Jens
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
The advanced report:
|IV 06||I 07||II 07||III 07||IV 07||I 08||II 08||III 08||IV 08||I 09|
|Gross domestic product||1.5||.1||4.8||4.8||-.2||.9||2.8||-.5||-6.3||-6.1|
|Change in private inventories||-1.41||-1.06||.47||.69||-.96||-.02||-1.50||.84||-.11||-2.79|
|Net exports of goods and services||1.33||-1.20||1.66||2.03||.94||.77||2.93||1.05||-.15||1.99|
The consumption figure is about what I expected, which makes the headline rather worse than I anticipated; that's some pretty phenomenally bad investment data. I really didn't expect that there would be an even bigger drawdown (writedown?) of inventories than in previous quarters. I didn't expect the boost from net exports, either, though.
The headline is somewhat worse than most guesses I had seen, but the worst may be behind us. I sure hope so.
Update: By the way, that was over $100 billion in inventory reductions.