Dollars and Jens
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
GDP
The advanced report:
| IV 06 | I 07 | II 07 | III 07 | IV 07 | I 08 | II 08 | III 08 | IV 08 | I 09 | |
| Gross domestic product | 1.5 | .1 | 4.8 | 4.8 | -.2 | .9 | 2.8 | -.5 | -6.3 | -6.1 |
| Services | 1.61 | 1.29 | .62 | 1.00 | .59 | 1.02 | .28 | -.03 | .66 | .63 |
| Nondurable goods | .62 | .71 | .40 | .25 | .05 | -.08 | .80 | -1.57 | -1.97 | .26 |
| Durable goods | .33 | .71 | .40 | .19 | .03 | -.33 | -.21 | -1.16 | -1.67 | .61 |
| Change in private inventories | -1.41 | -1.06 | .47 | .69 | -.96 | -.02 | -1.50 | .84 | -.11 | -2.79 |
| Fixed investment | -1.27 | -.57 | .47 | -.15 | -.97 | -.86 | -.25 | -.79 | -3.36 | -6.04 |
| Net exports of goods and services | 1.33 | -1.20 | 1.66 | 2.03 | .94 | .77 | 2.93 | 1.05 | -.15 | 1.99 |
| Government spending | .30 | .17 | .77 | .75 | .16 | .38 | .78 | 1.14 | .26 | -.81 |
The consumption figure is about what I expected, which makes the headline rather worse than I anticipated; that's some pretty phenomenally bad investment data. I really didn't expect that there would be an even bigger drawdown (writedown?) of inventories than in previous quarters. I didn't expect the boost from net exports, either, though.
The headline is somewhat worse than most guesses I had seen, but the worst may be behind us. I sure hope so.
Update: By the way, that was over $100 billion in inventory reductions.
Labels: gdp
