Dollars and Jens
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Initial Claims

As has been the pattern, the seasonal adjustment has swung the change in claims in the opposite direction of the raw number; the seasonally adjusted number is another 30,000 higher than what was reported last week, with last week's number revised up as well, while the unadjusted number is down 78,000. The seasonally adjusted number is 584,000. The smoothed number is 575,000.

Seasonal adjustments for this data set tend to be largest in the summer; this will settle down when we're past the usual period of industrial furloughs and students working summer jobs. I'm traveling for a while; perhaps the data will be tame by the time I get back.


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