Dollars and Jens
Thursday, August 27, 2009
initial claims
Let's see whether I still remember how to create and post plots.
Oh, good. And this one:
Initial claims reported this morning at 570,000, which is pretty close to where the series smoothes to, as well.
There was some appearance that seasonal factors were overadjusting the data; in particular, that low outlier in the adjusted series was a high outlier in the unadjusted series.
This week's adjustment factor (for data released next Thursday) is about the same as last week's, but then it bounces around a little bit near Labor Day; we may see a rise in this number two weeks from now followed by a dip due to the seasonal adjustment not being calibrated to current economic conditions.
Update:
If I back out a quarter of the seasonal adjustment, this is what the last 17 weeks look like:
Labels: Initial Claims of Unemployment
