Dollars and Jens
Thursday, August 27, 2009
initial claims
Let's see whether I still remember how to create and post plots.

Oh, good. And this one:

Initial claims reported this morning at 570,000, which is pretty close to where the series smoothes to, as well.

There was some appearance that seasonal factors were overadjusting the data; in particular, that low outlier in the adjusted series was a high outlier in the unadjusted series.

This week's adjustment factor (for data released next Thursday) is about the same as last week's, but then it bounces around a little bit near Labor Day; we may see a rise in this number two weeks from now followed by a dip due to the seasonal adjustment not being calibrated to current economic conditions.

If I back out a quarter of the seasonal adjustment, this is what the last 17 weeks look like:


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