Dollars and Jens
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Initial Claims
Last week's number was revised up to 576,000, and this week's report is 550,000.

The smoothed number is 560,000.

Pursuing the idea that the seasonal adjustment has been overdone in a time when some of the seasonality has been wrung out of the labor market, last week's partially-unadjusted number is revised to 544,000, while this week's is 526,000.

That smoothes to 533333, where insignificant figures are included because of an aesthetic coincidence. The 3-week exponential moving average is down to 540,000:

The last time this partially unadjusted number exceeded its 3-week moving average was the report of June 18. (This is also true for the other smoothing mechanism, though that's had a few much closer calls.)


Powered by Blogger