Dollars and Jens
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
predicted initial claims
My algorithm predicts that tomorrow morning's number will be 533,000. This is higher than the predictions Yahoo has, but it should be noted that it discounts the existence of a trend, and the trend is pointing downward. Since the trend has been about a weekly decrease of 5500, a best guess might be in the 525000 to 530000 area, with the understanding that there's some uncertainty here that probably exceeds 5500 anyway.

The main point I want to emphasize, though, is that, even accounting for a downtrend, the number is likely to blip up from last week. Don't worry; it will start dropping again after that.


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