Dollars and Jens
Friday, January 29, 2010
GDP
GDP was even stronger than expected, though, as expected, a lot of it was driven by inventory adjustments. Insofar as one is worried about final demand, this might be cause for concern, but note that inventories were still shrinking in Q4, just not nearly as quickly as in Q3. (The growth in GDP might not be sustainable, but the new level is more in line with recent levels of final sales; if final demand keeps up as it did last quarter, there's no particular reason we would have to "give back" much of the inventory boost.)
Fixed investment finally turned positive as well; "nonresidential structures" are still decreasing, but housing is (slightly) positive, and chattel investment was significantly up. (No, nobody calls it that. Just me.)
The slight drop in durable goods is, remember, affected by the expiration of cash-for-clunkers; if that were backed out, presumably durable goods purchases would be up as well.
| IV 06 | I 07 | II 07 | III 07 | IV 07 | I 08 | II 08 | III 08 | IV 08 | I 09 | II 09 | III 09 | IV 09 | |
| Gross domestic product | 3.0 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | -.7 | 1.5 | -2.7 | -5.4 | -6.4 | -.7 | 2.2 | 5.7 |
| Services | 1.40 | 1.61 | .76 | .60 | .15 | .85 | .17 | -.60 | .26 | -.13 | .09 | .37 | .83 |
| Nondurable goods | .93 | .48 | -.13 | .33 | .27 | -.49 | .35 | -.94 | -.78 | .29 | -.29 | .23 | .67 |
| Durable goods | .46 | .45 | .18 | .42 | .44 | -.75 | -.46 | -.95 | -1.64 | .28 | -.41 | 1.36 | -.06 |
| Change in private inventories | -1.08 | -.61 | .32 | .19 | -.63 | -.21 | -1.25 | .26 | -.64 | -2.36 | -1.42 | .69 | 3.39 |
| Fixed investment | -.91 | -.43 | .59 | -.04 | -.66 | -.99 | -.41 | -1.30 | -3.28 | -6.62 | -1.68 | -.15 | .43 |
| Net exports of goods and services | 1.94 | -.29 | .66 | 1.36 | 2.24 | .36 | 2.35 | -.10 | .45 | 2.64 | 1.65 | -.81 | .50 |
| Government spending | .21 | .00 | .82 | .75 | .31 | .51 | .71 | .95 | .24 | -.52 | 1.33 | .55 | -.02 |
Labels: gdp
