Dollars and Jens
Friday, July 02, 2010
What will the economy do?

Reasons for optimismReasons for pessimism

  • Steady rise in income, including from employment compensation
  • Some drop in the unemployment rate
  • Continued high weekly unemployment claims
  • Continued drop in the number of jobs / people employed
  • Expiration of government stimulus
  • (Premature?) contraction of the Fed balance sheet
  • Sovereign credit issues in Europe
  • Production has caught up with final sales; recent inventory investment likely to run out

I expect to continue to edit this over the course of the first week of July. Suggestions for addenda are welcome.


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