Dollars and Jens
Friday, January 28, 2011
I had started to worry that too much of recent GDP gains were driven by inventory accumulation. In the fourth quarter, it appears there was basically no inventory accumulation, while imports fell and exports rose. Note that government expenditure is also a subtraction here; this is really the best 3.2% growth I've ever seen.
|IV 07||I 08||II 08||III 08||IV 08||I 09||II 09||III 09||IV 09||I 10||II 10||III 10||IV 10|
|Gross domestic product||2.9||-.7||.6||-4.0||-6.8||-4.9||-.7||1.6||5.0||3.7||1.7||2.6||3.2|
|Change in private inventories||-.77||-.49||-.48||-.12||-2.31||-1.09||-1.03||1.10||2.83||2.64||.82||1.61||-3.70|
|Net exports of goods and services||3.21||.84||1.04||-.63||1.50||2.88||1.47||-1.37||1.90||-.31||-3.50||-1.70||3.44|
Update: Now that I look at it, both inventory accumulation and net exports have been strongly pro-cyclical lately; if I back out half of each, the last five quarters have growth rates (in reverse chronological order) of 3.3, 2.6, 3.0, 2.5, and 2.6, a smoother series than the headline numbers. The inventory accumulation and net exports have also been negatively correlated. I wonder how much of the inventory fluctuations have been in tradeable goods sectors, and have been seeing inventories absorb the fluctuations in foreign trade. Of course, this can get into data-mining pretty quickly; it's not as though I have that many degrees of freedom to look at.