Term: 4-Week High Rate: 0.000% Investment Rate*: 0.000% Price: $100.000000 Allotted at High: 77.26% Total Tendered: $108,387,438,300 Total Accepted: $20,000,626,700 Issue Date: 05/09/2013 Maturity Date: 06/06/2013 CUSIP: 912796AJ8
FOMC
The FOMC statement, as revised:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in
January suggests a return to moderate economic growth following a pause late last yearMarch suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shownsigns ofsome improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policyhas become somewhat more restrictiveis restraining economic growth. Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.
Labels: FOMC
GDP
The headline is a lot better than last quarter, but note that final private sales are actually weaker (growing more slowly) than last time. Well, final private sales from Americans, not to Americans; there was a surge in imports. Not, on the whole, a bad report, though not as good as one keeps hoping for after four years of high unemployment.
| II 09 | III 09 | IV 09 | I 10 | II 10 | III 10 | IV 10 | I 11 | II 11 | III 11 | IV 11 | I 12 | II 12 | III 12 | IV 12 | I 13 | |
| Gross domestic product | -.3 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.4 | .1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 3.1 | .4 | 2.5 |
| Services | -.75 | -.18 | .09 | .54 | 1.05 | .88 | 1.06 | .95 | .92 | .85 | .16 | .61 | .99 | .26 | .27 | 1.46 |
| Nondurable goods | -.32 | .26 | .37 | .79 | .02 | .35 | .71 | .73 | -.05 | -.06 | .29 | .26 | .10 | .19 | .02 | .16 |
| Durable goods | -.14 | 1.43 | -.47 | .40 | .74 | .52 | 1.07 | .53 | -.17 | .40 | 1.00 | .85 | -.02 | .66 | 1.00 | .62 |
| Change in private inventories | -1.03 | .19 | 4.55 | 2.23 | .07 | 1.97 | -1.61 | -.54 | .01 | -1.07 | 2.53 | -.39 | -.46 | .73 | -1.52 | 1.03 |
| Fixed investment | -2.49 | -.32 | -.69 | -.10 | 1.58 | -.10 | .87 | -.14 | 1.39 | 1.75 | 1.19 | 1.18 | .56 | .12 | 1.69 | .53 |
| Net exports of goods and services | 2.47 | -.70 | -.05 | -.83 | -1.81 | -.95 | 1.24 | .03 | .54 | .02 | -.64 | .06 | .23 | .38 | .33 | -.50 |
| Government spending | 1.94 | .79 | .23 | -.69 | .59 | -.06 | -.94 | -1.49 | -.16 | -.60 | -.43 | -.60 | -.14 | .75 | -1.41 | -.80 |
Labels: gdp
FOMC
The FOMC statement, as revised:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met inDecember suggests that growth in economic activity pausedJanuary suggests a return to moderate economic growth following a pause late last year. Labor market conditions have shown signs of improvement in recent months, in large part because of weather-related disruptions and other transitory factors. Employment has continued to expand at a moderate pacebut the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector hasshown further improvementstrengthened further, but fiscal policy has become somewhat more restrictive. Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.Although strains in global financial markets have eased somewhat, theThe Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committeewilldecided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months.If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, theThe Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, untilsuch improvement is achievedthe outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always,continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.
Possibly moved phrases: the outlook for the labor market
Labels: FOMC
GDP
Exports were a bit better than previously thought, tipping the overall figure from negative to positive. Insofar as the previous report was about as good as a negative headline value could look when you got to the details, the details here look a little less good, insofar as inventory adjustment is taking off less than it was and fixed investment is a bit weaker in its stead.
| r I 09 | II 09 | III 09 | IV 09 | I 10 | II 10 | III 10 | IV 10 | I 11 | II 11 | III 11 | IV 11 | I 12 | II 12 | III 12 | IV 12 | |
| Gross domestic product | -5.3 | -.3 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.4 | .1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 3.1 | .1 |
| Services | -1.12 | -.75 | -.18 | .09 | .54 | 1.05 | .88 | 1.06 | .95 | .92 | .85 | .16 | .61 | .99 | .26 | .44 |
| Nondurable goods | -.05 | -.32 | .26 | .37 | .79 | .02 | .35 | .71 | .73 | -.05 | -.06 | .29 | .26 | .10 | .19 | .02 |
| Durable goods | .11 | -.14 | 1.43 | -.47 | .40 | .74 | .52 | 1.07 | .53 | -.17 | .40 | 1.00 | .85 | -.02 | .66 | 1.01 |
| Change in private inventories | -2.29 | -1.03 | .19 | 4.55 | 2.23 | .07 | 1.97 | -1.61 | -.54 | .01 | -1.07 | 2.53 | -.39 | -.46 | .73 | -1.55 |
| Fixed investment | -4.73 | -2.49 | -.32 | -.69 | -.10 | 1.58 | -.10 | .87 | -.14 | 1.39 | 1.75 | 1.19 | 1.18 | .56 | .12 | 1.36 |
| Net exports of goods and services | 2.45 | 2.47 | -.70 | -.05 | -.83 | -1.81 | -.95 | 1.24 | .03 | .54 | .02 | -.64 | .06 | .23 | .38 | .24 |
| Government spending | .37 | 1.94 | .79 | .23 | -.69 | .59 | -.06 | -.94 | -1.49 | -.16 | -.60 | -.43 | -.60 | -.14 | .75 | -1.38 |
Labels: gdp
Fed Statement
The FOMC statement, as revised:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met inOctoberDecember suggests that growth in economic activityand employment havepaused in recent months, in large part because of weather-related disruptions and other transitory factors. Employment has continued to expand at a moderate pacein recent months, apart from weather-related disruptions. Althoughbut the unemployment ratehas declined somewhat since the summer, itremains elevated. Household spendinghas continued to advanceand business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has shown furthersigns of improvement, but growth in business fixed investment has slowedimprovement. Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee’s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committeeremains concerned that, without sufficientexpects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growthmight not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditionswill proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.Furthermore,Although strains in global financial marketscontinue to pose significanthave eased somewhat, the Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will purchaseand longer-term Treasury securitiesafter its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities is completed at the end of the year, initiallyat a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and, in January, will resumeof rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored.The Committee views these thresholds as consistent with its earlier date-based guidance.In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke;Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra PianaltoCharles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action wasJeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed the asset purchase program and the characterization of the conditions under which an exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriateEsther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.
Labels: FOMC
GDP
A surprisingly weak report, though in my opinion this is about the best imaginable breakdown for a .1 percent annual rate decline. Exports were weaker than the previous quarter, but most of the drop was due to a decline in government spending and a slowdown in inventory accumulation (which, note, was still positive, but was 1/3 of its value in the previous quarter).
| I 09 | II 09 | III 09 | IV 09 | I 10 | II 10 | III 10 | IV 10 | I 11 | II 11 | III 11 | IV 11 | I 12 | II 12 | III 12 | IV 12 | |
| Gross domestic product | -5.3 | -.3 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.4 | .1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 3.1 | -.1 |
| Services | -1.12 | -.75 | -.18 | .09 | .54 | 1.05 | .88 | 1.06 | .95 | .92 | .85 | .16 | .61 | .99 | .26 | .44 |
| Nondurable goods | -.05 | -.32 | .26 | .37 | .79 | .02 | .35 | .71 | .73 | -.05 | -.06 | .29 | .26 | .10 | .19 | .06 |
| Durable goods | .11 | -.14 | 1.43 | -.47 | .40 | .74 | .52 | 1.07 | .53 | -.17 | .40 | 1.00 | .85 | -.02 | .66 | 1.02 |
| Change in private inventories | -2.29 | -1.03 | .19 | 4.55 | 2.23 | .07 | 1.97 | -1.61 | -.54 | .01 | -1.07 | 2.53 | -.39 | -.46 | .73 | -1.27 |
| Fixed investment | -4.73 | -2.49 | -.32 | -.69 | -.10 | 1.58 | -.10 | .87 | -.14 | 1.39 | 1.75 | 1.19 | 1.18 | .56 | .12 | 1.19 |
| Net exports of goods and services | 2.45 | 2.47 | -.70 | -.05 | -.83 | -1.81 | -.95 | 1.24 | .03 | .54 | .02 | -.64 | .06 | .23 | .38 | -.25 |
| Government spending | .37 | 1.94 | .79 | .23 | -.69 | .59 | -.06 | -.94 | -1.49 | -.16 | -.60 | -.43 | -.60 | -.14 | .75 | -1.33 |
Labels: gdp
Fed statement
The FOMC statement, as revised:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met inSeptemberOctober suggests that economic activityhasand employment have continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months, apart from weather-related disruptions.Growth in employment has been slow, andAlthough the unemployment rate has declined somewhat since the summer, it remains elevated.Household spending hasadvanced a bit more quicklycontinued to advance, and the housing sector has shown further signs of improvement, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed.The housing sector has shown some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level. Inflation recently picked up somewhat, reflecting higherInflation has been running somewhat below the Committee’s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices.Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likelywouldwill run at or below its 2 percent objective.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also willcontinue through the end of the yearpurchase longer-term Treasury securities after its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities, and itis completed at the end of the year, initially at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and, in January, will resume rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.These actions, which together will increase the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should putTaken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committeealso decided todaydecided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates thatexceptionally low levelsthis exceptionally low range for the federal funds rateare likely to be warrantedwill be appropriate at leastthrough mid-2015.as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. The Committee views these thresholds as consistent with its earlier date-based guidance. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposedadditional asset purchases and disagreed with the description of the time period over which a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate andthe asset purchase program and the characterization of the conditions under which an exceptionally lowlevelsrange for the federal funds rateare likely to be warrantedwill be appropriate.
Possibly moved phrases: a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy housing sector has shown further signs of improvement
Labels: FOMC
